Did Russia kill Baghdadi?

Russia claimed to kill Baghdadi in an airstrike several weeks ago. Should the information prove to be true, then this would be an enormous boost for the Russian air campaign in Syria. It would also strengthen the Syrian, Russian and Iranian hand in the Astana and Geneva talks for the conclusion of the Syrian civil war.

While the death of Baghdadi would certainly be a victory in the war on terror, it would not mean the end of ISIS, even should all territory in Iraq and Syria be regained. One only has to look back to how the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have risen to prominence after the death of Bin Laden to see that killing the leader of a terror organisation does not guarantee its destruction.

Further, examples should be noted from ISIS' own history. After the death of Abu Musab Az-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq from 1999 - 2006, the most bitter fighting was initiated by then AQI against the US-backed Iraqi forces. After the death of Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi in 2010, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, (ISI was AQI with an updated name) Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi took control. He revolutionized ISI by making the most of the Syrian Civil War to transform the group into ISIS. Today, the group goes by the name "Islamic State" and has stolen the limelight from Al-Qaeda.

While counter-terrorism experts say that one of Baghdadi's two deputies will take control of ISIS after the death of Baghdadi, there is a good reason to question this. Firstly, Baghdadi's two deputies are officers from the Saddam Hussein regime and have no religious authority in and of themselves. The next stage in ISIS' transformation is a critical lifeline: ISIS will transform from a Caliphate Army across Syria and Iraq to an Insurgency stretching from Iraq down into the Arabian Gulf. And the only way to ignite a civil war in a Gulf country like Saudi Arabia is to have someone with Islamic legitimacy to succeed Baghdadi as the next Caliph.

Many who celebrate the death of Baghdadi fail to see that ISIS' most deadly fight is yet to come. The Iraqi-Syrian war will be but a sideshow compared to ISIS' big battle for the Gulf. And a Caliph with Islamic legitimacy will very likely rise in Baghdadi's place.