Had John Waver had been George W. Bush

For my article 'If John Waver had been Barrack Obama' read here:

http://jwaverfpolicy.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/if-john-waver-had-been-barrack-obama.html


In this article I will explain what John Waver would have done had he been President of the United States in the time George W. Bush was, from 2001 - 2009, and his subsequent response to 9-11 and the war on terror.

Had John Waver been George W. Bush and 9-11 occurred, I would have of course authorized the Afghan War with Congress Approval. However, I would have never gone into Iraq.

Rather than engaging in an Iraq War, I would have orchestrated an 'Iraq deal,' getting chemical and biological weapons out of Iraq in exchange for sanctions lifted and Saddam Hussein able to continue his rule in Baghdad.

In Afghanistan, rather than push for democracy, I would have allowed a military dictator to take control of the country. Like in Syria under Bashar Al-Assad, I would have pushed for secular and democratic reform in Afghanistan under the dictator, with an enormous emphasis on the newly formed Afghan Army driving Al-Qaeda and the Taliban out of the country.

In particular, I would have targeted the Afghan-Pakistani border and increased spending on border security over and above spending tax-payer dollars on infrastructure. Should an Afghani economy have materialized, American tax-payer dollars would have been less necessary to provide infrastructure for the country as Afghanistan would have had the economic means to do it themselves.

I would have made Afghanistan a necessary and top ally of America in the Middle-East. I would have increased bilateral trade between America and Afghanistan, sending a clear message to allies who fund terrorism, such as Pakistan, that we don't need allies who stab us in the back.

Yet John Waver would not have gone into just Afghanistan, as America was looking for a fight and not satisfied with invading Afghanistan. They really wanted to make someone pay for what happened with 9-11. In addition to invading Afghanistan, I would have pushed for an invasion of Somalia.

Not only were Americans spoiling for a fight; after 9-11, they pragmatically needed another supply of oil other than just Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Rather than destabilizing Iraq to get that oil, or in President John Waver's case, rather than just lifting sanctions off Iraq, stabilizing Somalia would have been more beneficial for the wider region and would have increased American appeal in the Middle-East and Northern Africa.

By 2003, Somalia had been in chaos for over ten years. Sadly, it is still in chaos today. Somalia is perhaps as bad as Syria and Iraq, but the violence has not ended; it has just kept going and going. Ash-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda group, had taken up refuge in Somalia, which is why George W. Bush authorized a bombing campaign there. Rather than authorizing a bombing campaign in Somalia and an invasion of Iraq, I would have ditched Iraq War plans altogether and invaded Somalia to stabilize it and liquidate the Al-Qaeda threat.

Stabilizing Somalia would have had immense economic benefits and would have been a smaller project than the Iraq War. That said, it would still have been more challenging than the Afghan War. Reinstating stability in a lawless country is no easy task. However, with help of experts in Somali culture and tribal warfare - including listening to their advice - it would have been far more achievable than democracy in Iraq.

One of the other benefits of establishing an American presence in Somalia would have been its close proximity to Yemen and Saudi Arabia. This would mean that Saudi Arabia would have felt more pressure from a nearby US presence from across the Red Sea and would have had to check their actions - such as relations with Al-Qaeda - more carefully. Not only so, but Al-Qaeda would have increased its hold on Yemen as a result of its expulsion not only from Saudi Arabia (which occurred in 2006) but also from Somalia, had the Somali war been successful.

It would have left an incredibly easy platform for intervention in Yemen against Al-Qaeda. Perhaps rather than endorsing the Arab Spring, America would have chosen to focus on stabilizing Yemen, across the sea from Somalia and gaining military bases south of Saudi Arabia. Yemen, together with Somalia, could have acted as alternate top allies for America over Saudi Arabia. Like with choosing Afghanistan over Pakistan, John Waver could have reshuffled alliances in the coasts of the Red Sea, as a result of 9-11 and the war on terror.

Alas, we will never return to those days. Somalia will continue to deteriorate, and Trump is stuck fixing a plethora of countries: Afghanistan and Iraq - thanks to W. Bush and Obama - as well as Syria, Libya and Yemen - thanks specifically to Obama. The amount of wars engaged in by the US could have been much more beneficial for the region had earlier actions been different.

The next 9-11

We are not far from the next 9-11 from occurring.

As ISIS is losing its Caliphate, from Mosul, to Hawija, to Deir Ez-Zor, to Anbar, to Raqqa, the terror group will turn more to terror attacks in increasing frustration.

I expect this will occur after the fall of Mosul to Iraqi forces.

I also expect this will not happen in America. America is too heavily fortified against another 9-11 from occurring in their country. It is instead likely to happen in Europe.

The prime targets for a 9-11-style attack by ISIS are Belgium, France, Germany or Sweden. Make no mistake: a 9-11 attack by ISIS will be far worse than September 11, 2001. This is because ISIS show they are more focused on killing civilians than attacking governments. Al-Qaeda was about attacking American centers, like the world trade center, the Pentagon - even the White House.

ISIS' aims are far more primitive. Destroying an entire football stadium, or somewhere else with mass population density, would be enough for them.

Once an ISIS attack of this magnitude occurs in Europe, civil wars will ignite like wildfire. It will mean the instability of Iraq and Syria will come to Europe.