Libya in the next 5 years may be the same as the Iraq of 2014.
During 2011 - 2013, Iraq was often out of the headlines, but it was plagued by rampant instability, chaos and political stalemate. Ultimately it was these reasons that led to Iraq's downfall in 2014 with the invasion of ISIS and the resignation of Nouri Al-Maliki from his position as Prime Minister.
Like the Iraq of 2011 - 2013, Libya has received much less media coverage today than Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan, but the Arab country has been in a state of chaos since 2011 and has been in civil war since 2014.
With the conflicts in Syria and Iraq receding in violence and with the Taliban under enormous pressure in Afghanistan, the future of jihad is likely to be found in Libya.
According to Aaron Zeilin, a foreign expert on Jihad,
“Libya now stands as the fourth-largest foreign fighter mobilization in global jihadist history, behind only the current war in Syria, the Afghan jihad of the 1980s, and the 2003 Iraq war."
(Excerpt taken from: http://www.arabnews.com/node/1238741
This is a frightening statistic, especially since both the US and Russia are tied up in other conflicts. While Libya is currently the fourth-largest foreign fighter mobilization in global jihadist history, jihadist mobilization would increase in Libya if it is defeated elsewhere.
Though Russia has explored political solutions for Libya, it has shown restraint due no doubt to prioritizing the complicated crisis in Syria. The historic "Iraq war in reverse" may have seen terrorism irrevocably reversed, but it has also tied up Russian war resources in Syria at the expense of Libya.
For President Donald Trump, though his strategy in Syria is fundamentally flawed (see http://jwaversyria.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/turkish-invasion-into-kurdish-afrin.html) Trump's strategies for Iraq and Afghanistan are sound. (see link here http://jwaveruspolitics.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/trumps-afghanistan-strategy-is-asia.html)
Should the counter-terrorism projects of Russia and the US prove successful in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, undoubtedly terrorists will look elsewhere to extract vengeance against these superpowers - Libya is the obvious choice.
Given Libya's size, (1.76 million square km, compared to Syria's 185 hundred thousand square km) strategic location, (central Mediterranean, bordering Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan, Chad and Niger) low population size, (5.6 million Libyans in 2012 compared to Syria's 18.28 million) and rampant instability, (like Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria) Libya is an ideal place from which terrorists could exact revenge should they be rolled back elsewhere.
Countries which have previously supported Salafi terrorism - such as Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - stand to benefit from a worsening crisis in Libya. Should Libya unfold in the next years as Iraq did in 2014, jihad will be focused on Libya and not the countries which funded terrorism in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
Of course, none of this could have happened without the Obama Administration's overthrow of Moammar Al-Qaddafi in 2011. If Afghanistan in the 1980's, Iraq in 2003 and Syria's civil war weren't proof enough, Libya should hammer home the reality of regime change in the Middle-East and the Arab world:
It breeds more terrorism.
