Did Russia kill Baghdadi?

Russia claimed to kill Baghdadi in an airstrike several weeks ago. Should the information prove to be true, then this would be an enormous boost for the Russian air campaign in Syria. It would also strengthen the Syrian, Russian and Iranian hand in the Astana and Geneva talks for the conclusion of the Syrian civil war.

While the death of Baghdadi would certainly be a victory in the war on terror, it would not mean the end of ISIS, even should all territory in Iraq and Syria be regained. One only has to look back to how the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula have risen to prominence after the death of Bin Laden to see that killing the leader of a terror organisation does not guarantee its destruction.

Further, examples should be noted from ISIS' own history. After the death of Abu Musab Az-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq from 1999 - 2006, the most bitter fighting was initiated by then AQI against the US-backed Iraqi forces. After the death of Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi in 2010, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, (ISI was AQI with an updated name) Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi took control. He revolutionized ISI by making the most of the Syrian Civil War to transform the group into ISIS. Today, the group goes by the name "Islamic State" and has stolen the limelight from Al-Qaeda.

While counter-terrorism experts say that one of Baghdadi's two deputies will take control of ISIS after the death of Baghdadi, there is a good reason to question this. Firstly, Baghdadi's two deputies are officers from the Saddam Hussein regime and have no religious authority in and of themselves. The next stage in ISIS' transformation is a critical lifeline: ISIS will transform from a Caliphate Army across Syria and Iraq to an Insurgency stretching from Iraq down into the Arabian Gulf. And the only way to ignite a civil war in a Gulf country like Saudi Arabia is to have someone with Islamic legitimacy to succeed Baghdadi as the next Caliph.

Many who celebrate the death of Baghdadi fail to see that ISIS' most deadly fight is yet to come. The Iraqi-Syrian war will be but a sideshow compared to ISIS' big battle for the Gulf. And a Caliph with Islamic legitimacy will very likely rise in Baghdadi's place.

Turkey deploys troops to Qatar to protect terror state

Erdogan's Turkey and Qatar share a very similar outlook and foreign policy.

In Libya, Egypt, Syria and Yemen, Turkey and Qatar have supported the Muslim Brotherhood. Both countries also supported ISIS long after Saudi Arabia and allies withdrew support for it.

And now, as Qatar becomes increasingly isolated by other members of the GCC, Turkey has deployed troops to the small resource-rich country in a show of support. Once again, Turkey has shown itself to be a loggerheads with Trump policy.

Trump gave the green light to funding Kurds in Syria against ISIS. This policy - also implemented under Obama - irritated Turkey so much that it mended ties with both Russia and Syria, to keep Bashar Al-Assad in power and curb Kurdish strength in Syria.

Now, after Trump's historic speech in Saudi Arabia, GCC nations are attempting to curb terrorism in their region by isolating Qatar, perhaps the largest funder of terrorism in the world. And Turkey has deployed troops to protect the terror state.

This is likely to force a realignment of powers in the region. Qatar and Turkey will end up more fully allied with the Iranian axis, and an opportunity now exists for Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC to push for closer relations with Iraq. If isolating Qatar was part of Trump's desired policy, improvement of GCC-Iraqi relations is also.

Things are now moving very dangerously for the Arabian Gulf. Should relations deteriorate in any form between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Turkey could use its base in Qatar from which to deploy terrorists into Saudi Arabia - after all, Qatar and Saudi Arabia do share a border. Turkey is overflowing with refugees - redeploying some of those refugees into Saudi Arabia via Qatar might be a way to decrease its problem.

Whether Iran would also get in on such a Qatar-Turkey plot is difficult to guess, as the likely outcome of a war in Saudi Arabia would be more stability for Syria and perhaps for Iraq as well, but Iran could lose their Shi'ite minorities in the Gulf.

What is certain now that Turkey has gotten involved is that regime change and military escalation against Qatar are now very unlikely. What is possible is that Qatar will be expelled from the GCC, sanctions will be put on Qatar and the US might have to relocate its military base from Qatar to the UAE.

On the other hand, Turkish-Saudi relations may deteriorate completely, and a civil war in Saudi Arabia may be plotted in retaliation to isolating Qatar.