Russia has fought the big battle in the war on terror

Russia's strategy is a winning strategy: scope, focus and a hard punch.

Like in world war 2, Russia's impact in the war on terror is marginally overlooked. Until Russia entered the Syrian civil war on the side of the Government, terrorism was largely winning worldwide. ISIS, while retreating in Iraq, was regrouping and attacking the government in Syria. Idlib in Syria had fallen to Al-Qaeda forces. Saudi was aiding Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Libya was an unsolvable debacle. Afghanistan was a stalemate.

But when Russia entered the Syrian Civil War in September 2015, it all changed. In Syria, there was nowhere to hide for any terrorism, whether ISIS - which was already suffering under American air strikes - or Al-Qaeda - which America was attacking far less.

The Syrian Civil War had reached its turning point. In a matter of 12 months, many rebel gains had been reversed. After 18 months, Aleppo city is back in the government's hands; ISIS is on the run from the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces; the rebels are holed up in Idlib and rebels from other parts of Syria are periodically evacuated to Idlib and out of other cities.

This forced Obama to apply more military might. In the battle of Ramadi, more American air power resulted in victory, while in Libya, Obama moved to destroy ISIS in the city of Sirte. He also urged his Gulf allies to attack Al-Qaeda in Yemen while battling the Houthis, and halted withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I guess some call it, "Obama leading from behind." I call it Putin's genius.

Since Trump has gotten in power, Russia is doing more to end the war on terror than ever. Not only is Russia involved in Syria; Russia is moving behind the scenes in Libya to stabilize the Arabic state under Haftar Al-Khalifa with assistance from Egypt. Meanwhile, Putin is also eyeing Yemen as an extra country of influence should Syria and/or Libya stabilize, or should Russian operations in Syria be challenged.

Rather than tear down Russian gains in the war on terror - which was Hillary Clinton's foreign policy - Trump is likely to want to compete with Russia on who can deal the terrorists the most fatal blow. Trump is likely to strike these blows in Iraq and Afghanistan - in Iraq against ISIS and Iran, and in Afghanistan against the Taliban and by making Afghanistan into a "block" against Iran as Saddam's Iraq once was.

But Russia was the one who started these amazing victories. Even should Trump compete, Russia has fought the big battle in Syria on the war on terror.

Why ISIS is set to grow - not shrink - in the Middle-East

People who believe ISIS will be destroyed after the liberation of Syria and Iraq are not seeing the whole picture.

Many strategists of counter terrorism believe that, should ISIS be destroyed from Syria and Iraq, they won't be able to come back, and that Al-Qaeda is making more inroads by playing the "long game".

This ignores how much weaker Al-Qaeda has become since the death of Osama Bin Laden and the rise of ISIS. The only reasons why we're still talking about Al-Qaeda is because they represent a serious threat to Yemen and Afghanistan. In Syria, Al-Qaeda would join ISIS if the Assad Government were removed. They are only separate today because it is more acceptable for countries to fund Al-Qaeda than ISIS.

As it is, should the Assad Government stay in Syria, it is near impossible for Al-Qaeda to remain in Syria at the conclusion of the civil war. They will be completely obliterated - Jabhat Feteh Ash-Sham will be but a memory of the Syrian Civil War.

But ISIS... ISIS' origins are in Iraq, and as long as Iraq is as unstable as it has been since 2003, ISIS will also remain in Iraq. While Iraqi military gains have been impressive, ISIS has been gaining ground in suicide bombs and insurgent attacks, especially in Baghdad. While crushing terrorism in Syria is much easier - letting the dictator stay in power - this is unlikely to work as well in Iraq.

With Russia set to stabilize Syria and Libya, ISIS will be forced to dig deeper into the fabric of Iraq in order to survive. This represents one of the most serious challenges to the Trump Administration: how to stabilize Iraq and deprive ISIS of an underground safe haven.

Worryingly, while ISIS will be continuing to destabilize Iraq, their efforts will be turned towards Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. For further information on how ISIS threatens Saudi Arabia, read the following article by Alistair Crooke:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/isis-aim-saudi-arabia_b_5748744.html

In fact, it is easy to see how this has been the aim of ISIS all along: declare a Caliphate across Syria and Iraq, force all enemies to utterly destroy the Caliphate, then to "rebirth" the Caliphate in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

So far, no one in counter terrorism is addressing this. They are looking at the paper tiger of Al-Qaeda in Syria, when they should be looking at the threat ISIS is to the Arabian Gulf!

Not only is war and instability coming to Saudi Arabia, but also to most of the other Gulf states: Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and U.A.E (Dubai), which may lead to the fall of these smaller kingdoms to ISIS. Such instability will cause an oil shortage - greatly increasing oil prices and forcing the whole world to gaze in horror at Saudi Arabia as they have been in Syria.

Destroying ISIS from the Arabian Gulf will be a near impossible task. Once ISIS detonates there, it will be easier for America to stabilize Iraq than drive ISIS out of Saudi Arabia.

Predictions for Trump and the war on terror

These are my predictions for the war on terror in the next 4 - 8 years under Trump:

1) The jihadists' spaces will shrink. In Syria and Libya, Russia is pushing radical Islamic jihadists out of power and is replacing them with strong governments in Bashar Al-Assad and Haftar Al-Khalifa respectively. Trump is unlikely to wage war over these Russian policies. Trump is also likely to double down on Afghanistan and Iraq after ISIS is defeated, to utterly destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan and to make sure ISIS does not return to Iraq.

2) The jihadist space in Yemen will grow. By supporting the Saudi-led war on Yemen, America is likely to be hurled into a quagmire almost as deadly as Syria. By striking Al-Qaeda and supporting the Saudi air war on Yemen, Trump is attacking two enemies - who are fighting each other - at the same time. Ultimately, one has to prevail over the other.

In the case of Yemen, Al-Qaeda is perceived by Saudi less of a threat than the Houthis, so Trump will probably be forced to either withdraw support for the Saudi war on Yemen, or allow Al-Qaeda to grow in Yemen at the expense of the Houthis. Either way, the jihadist space in Yemen is set to grow under Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

3) ISIS and Al-Qaeda will come to Saudi Arabia. Should Trump let Russia stabilize Libya and Syria while Trump himself focuses on stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia will become incredibly vulnerable to civil war. This is largely due to Mohammed Bin Salman trying to modernize the kingdom in a completely impractical way, while also tying up too many Saudi resources in Yemen.

This will likely lead to Saudi Arabia imploding, with ISIS being a problem in the north, east and centre of the country while Al-Qaeda ending up a problem in the south of the country. What America does in that situation is anyone's guess.

4) American relations with Middle-East nations will change drastically. It seems to me that Turkish-American relations are at the worst point in their history, due to having different priorities in the Syrian Civil War: for the Turks, the priority is the Kurds; for America, the priority is ISIS.

With Turkish-American relations set to further deteriorate, in Turkey's place America will likely raise up its US-dependent, allies - and those with enormous resources - to a different level of relations. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind in particular. Both have potential to function similarly to how Turkey had functioned for America in the past and, should they become stable, will become strong enough to keep American allies powerful in the region due to enormous swathes of natural resources.

In addition to Iraq and Afghanistan, relations with Jordan and Egypt are likely to deepen, as well as, predictably, Israel. These strengthening and weakening of relations will all affect the war on terror, as countries which have supported terrorism, like Turkey and Pakistan, are more likely to end up US' enemies rather than allies.


These are the predictions during the - likely - 2 presidential terms of the Trump Administration. We'll find out just how close or off the mark I was in due time.