Predictions for Trump and the war on terror

These are my predictions for the war on terror in the next 4 - 8 years under Trump:

1) The jihadists' spaces will shrink. In Syria and Libya, Russia is pushing radical Islamic jihadists out of power and is replacing them with strong governments in Bashar Al-Assad and Haftar Al-Khalifa respectively. Trump is unlikely to wage war over these Russian policies. Trump is also likely to double down on Afghanistan and Iraq after ISIS is defeated, to utterly destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan and to make sure ISIS does not return to Iraq.

2) The jihadist space in Yemen will grow. By supporting the Saudi-led war on Yemen, America is likely to be hurled into a quagmire almost as deadly as Syria. By striking Al-Qaeda and supporting the Saudi air war on Yemen, Trump is attacking two enemies - who are fighting each other - at the same time. Ultimately, one has to prevail over the other.

In the case of Yemen, Al-Qaeda is perceived by Saudi less of a threat than the Houthis, so Trump will probably be forced to either withdraw support for the Saudi war on Yemen, or allow Al-Qaeda to grow in Yemen at the expense of the Houthis. Either way, the jihadist space in Yemen is set to grow under Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

3) ISIS and Al-Qaeda will come to Saudi Arabia. Should Trump let Russia stabilize Libya and Syria while Trump himself focuses on stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia will become incredibly vulnerable to civil war. This is largely due to Mohammed Bin Salman trying to modernize the kingdom in a completely impractical way, while also tying up too many Saudi resources in Yemen.

This will likely lead to Saudi Arabia imploding, with ISIS being a problem in the north, east and centre of the country while Al-Qaeda ending up a problem in the south of the country. What America does in that situation is anyone's guess.

4) American relations with Middle-East nations will change drastically. It seems to me that Turkish-American relations are at the worst point in their history, due to having different priorities in the Syrian Civil War: for the Turks, the priority is the Kurds; for America, the priority is ISIS.

With Turkish-American relations set to further deteriorate, in Turkey's place America will likely raise up its US-dependent, allies - and those with enormous resources - to a different level of relations. Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind in particular. Both have potential to function similarly to how Turkey had functioned for America in the past and, should they become stable, will become strong enough to keep American allies powerful in the region due to enormous swathes of natural resources.

In addition to Iraq and Afghanistan, relations with Jordan and Egypt are likely to deepen, as well as, predictably, Israel. These strengthening and weakening of relations will all affect the war on terror, as countries which have supported terrorism, like Turkey and Pakistan, are more likely to end up US' enemies rather than allies.


These are the predictions during the - likely - 2 presidential terms of the Trump Administration. We'll find out just how close or off the mark I was in due time.