Thursday 11 May 2017

Russia has fought the big battle in the war on terror



Russia's strategy is a winning strategy: scope, focus and a hard punch.

Like in world war 2, Russia's impact in the war on terror is marginally overlooked. Until Russia entered the Syrian civil war on the side of the Government, terrorism was largely winning worldwide. ISIS, while retreating in Iraq, was regrouping and attacking the government in Syria. Idlib in Syria had fallen to Al-Qaeda forces. Saudi was aiding Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Libya was an unsolvable debacle. Afghanistan was a stalemate.

But when Russia entered the Syrian Civil War in September 2015, it all changed. In Syria, there was nowhere to hide for any terrorism, whether ISIS - which was already suffering under American air strikes - or Al-Qaeda - which America was attacking far less.

The Syrian Civil War had reached its turning point. In a matter of 12 months, many rebel gains had been reversed. After 18 months, Aleppo city is back in the government's hands; ISIS is on the run from the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces; the rebels are holed up in Idlib and rebels from other parts of Syria are periodically evacuated to Idlib and out of other cities.

This forced Obama to apply more military might. In the battle of Ramadi, more American air power resulted in victory, while in Libya, Obama moved to destroy ISIS in the city of Sirte. He also urged his Gulf allies to attack Al-Qaeda in Yemen while battling the Houthis, and halted withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I guess some call it, "Obama leading from behind." I call it Putin's genius.

Since Trump has gotten in power, Russia is doing more to end the war on terror than ever. Not only is Russia involved in Syria; Russia is moving behind the scenes in Libya to stabilize the Arabic state under Haftar Al-Khalifa with assistance from Egypt. Meanwhile, Putin is also eyeing Yemen as an extra country of influence should Syria and/or Libya stabilize, or should Russian operations in Syria be challenged.

Rather than tear down Russian gains in the war on terror - which was Hillary Clinton's foreign policy - Trump is likely to want to compete with Russia on who can deal the terrorists the most fatal blow. Trump is likely to strike these blows in Iraq and Afghanistan - in Iraq against ISIS and Iran, and in Afghanistan against the Taliban and by making Afghanistan into a "block" against Iran as Saddam's Iraq once was.

But Russia was the one who started these amazing victories. Even should Trump compete, Russia has fought the big battle in Syria on the war on terror.

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