After Iraq and Syria, where will terrorism rise next?

During the early years of the Syrian civil war, the US largely ignored the high risk the Syrian conflict had of spilling into Iraq. Now that both Iraq and Syria are seeing a recession in violence, high risks are increasing elsewhere, again largely ignored by the US.

One such high risk area is Yemen. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula continues to benefit enormously from the Yemen war waged by Saudi Arabia. As ISIS grew out of the chaos of the Iraq War and matured in the furnace of the Syrian Civil War, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the only benefactor of the Saudi air war in Yemen.

Libya is another high risk area. For jihadist groups, Libya was always a battle which could be fought later. After the overthrow of Moammar Al-Qaddafi, many of the weapons held by the regime were sent across the Mediterranean through Turkey into Syria to further arm the rebels. Fighters who had previously fought for the overthrow of the regime in Libya turned to fight for another: Assad's regime in Syria.

Now, having suffered a serious setback in Syria - which, with the entry of Turkey into Idlib, will only get worse - it would be time for jihadist minds to again return to Libya from Syria, to make sure the Arab Islamist Revolution still survives in one country.

However, efforts have been made to make sure that several areas will not return to instability and chaos as before. President Trump, in outlining his Afghanistan policy, has assured his allies that the US will not be withdrawing from Afghanistan, unlike President Obama in Iraq, and Trump will in fact be pushing for true and lasting victory in Afghanistan over Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

President Trump has also maintained that a residual force will be left behind in Iraq after ISIS is defeated, to make sure that ISIS will be unable to return to Iraq as strongly as it did in 2014. In addition, President Trump has prioritized peace in Syria over the removal of Bashar Al-Assad, and has prioritized peace in Syria over the complaints of US allies such as Israel. It is also important to note that after the destruction of ISIS, the US intends on withdrawing from Syria.

While these US policies regarding Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria are sound, President Trump's own support for the Saudi war on Yemen makes him complicit in the fueling of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Libya, on the other hand, is the failure of the Obama Administration and Europe: Obama for overthrowing Qaddafi and Europe for not looking after Libya in its aftermath.

While violence is set to increase in Libya and Yemen in the next year, in the next 5 - 10 years, violence is set to increase in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Both Libya and Yemen are likely to fall into Russia's orbit, as President Trump intends to stay focused on his America First agenda and not get tangled in additional Middle-East quagmires.

Regarding Saudi Arabia, it may even be that the US will be so sick of intervention that, with Russia in control of Syria, Libya and Yemen, and with the US prioritizing stability in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Trump Administration will call on other world powers - such as the EU, Egypt and Jordan - to intervene on behalf of Saudi Arabia.

In the mean time, much scrutiny will be placed on both the Trump and Obama Administrations for the failures of stopping terrorism from spreading into Libya and Yemen at an accelerated rate.