Thursday 24 August 2017

Key points from Trump's Afghan War speech



In a recent speech Trump outlined his Administration's approach to Afghanistan. It departs from Obama's approach in several key ways which will be detailed in this article.


1) President Trump fights in Afghanistan to win. Obama's approach was to not lose the war in Afghanistan. His desire was for a withdrawal and a pullout, but signalling this to the American public also signaled this to the Afghan government and, crucially, to the Taliban. The Afghan government was unwilling to fight hard for their country so long as US support was not guaranteed, and the Taliban was able to wait out until the end of Obama's timeline before increasing their own insurgency.

Trump does not deal in such notions. His desire is for no timelines to be published and no strategies to be made known to the American people, except for the eradication of Al-Qaeda and ISIS from the region. Such a task, though daunting, is not impossible with a US apparatus willing to fight for victory.

2) US stance on Pakistan and India has changed. President Trump's change in approach to Pakistan is long overdue. They have long played a double game with the US - on the one hand, supporting the Afghan government and US initiative in the region; on the other hand, supporting the Taliban and giving them and other terrorist groups safe havens. Trump's strategy is to isolate Pakistan and hold their feet to the fire, through economic sanctions and gaining more support from India.

India has strategic objectives in Afghanistan. Stability in the region greatly eases the burden on India, but also it is a chance to defeat Pakistan by proxy. India, like the United States, benefits from the strengthening of the Afghan government and defeating the Taliban. An increased role for India is more likely to result in peace for Afghanistan.

3) Nation-building in Afghanistan is over. President Trump has long maintained that his foreign policy objectives are not focused on recreating the US in other countries. This is certainly a breath of fresh air given Obama's unyielding support for the Arab Spring and for democracy in Afghanistan. It means that President Trump will be less worried about corruption, democracy and "human rights" in Afghanistan, on the condition that counter-terrorism objectives continue to be reached.

In this is the realization that strengthening democracy in a country like Afghanistan may result in losing the war against terrorism, but letting democracy fail and turning a blind eye to some forms of corruption while strengthening counter-terrorism services and military may provide a more lasting peace. The US military will not be responsible for building democracy in Afghanistan; in Trump's words, they are in Afghanistan to kill terrorists.

4) The US military has been unleashed. Gone are restraints and micromanagement from the White House during the Obama years. President Trump is going to unleash the US military to let them achieve peace in Afghanistan as they are able. They will be unhindered in targeting Taliban, ISIS and Al-Qaeda members and will serve in a largely advisory role to the Afghan forces, while likely to up the air campaign against the Taliban.


Whether or not President Trump's strategy will produce victory in Afghanistan is unclear. What is clear, however, is that at the very least, the Taliban are about to receive a thrashing long overdue.

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