Sunday 15 July 2018

Conservative Pundits underestimate dangers in Afghanistan



There are those on the political right, such as news network Breitbart, that believe the solution to the Afghan conflict is a US withdrawal.

They are correct to conclude that the United States has far too large a footprint across the globe, but the continual focus by select conservative media on a pullout from Afghanistan over areas like Syria or Iraq is incredibly worrying. The United States meddled in both Syria and Iraq though neither regime threatened US interests. Both were terrible interventions that have darkened the pages of American history - and, worse still, distracted the United States from securing victory in Afghanistan.

The pundits are pointing to withdrawal from the wrong conflict. Instead of pushing for withdrawal from Afghanistan, they would be better served to push for withdrawal from Syria - as President Trump is doing.

Unlike in Syria, the dangers in Afghanistan are enormous for the United States. The Taliban still maintains its integral ties to Al-Qaeda, and has given no credible reassurance to the United States that Al-Qaeda will not return to the region after a US withdrawal. A US withdrawal from Afghanistan would only serve to embolden the Taliban. That commentators suggest the Taliban has no interest in making Afghanistan an Al-Qaeda stronghold again is not only naive and dangerous - it is terrible journalism.

It is important to note that Ayman Az-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, still pledged allegiance to the head of the Afghan Taliban in 2016, 15 years after the beginning of the Afghan War. This gives a clear example of the integral relationship between the top of Al-Qaeda leadership and the Taliban, which has not abated in any way, shape or form - except by US pressure in Afghanistan.

Perhaps ISIS is the greater threat to the interests of the United States - but even so, ISIS did not shelter the terrorist organization that killed thousands of American civilians. The Taliban did so, and still refuses to cut ties to the instigators of 9-11 even after 17 years of war.

It would be fair for conservative media to point out that, so far, strategy has not been working in Afghanistan. But perhaps this comes from incorrect beliefs within the American government:

1) a military solution is impossible in Afghanistan
2) the Taliban should be pressured to the negotiating table to end the war

To answer the first point: for the United States to doubt a military solution in Afghanistan shows weakness in the face of their enemies. Perhaps alone, a military solution is impossible - but through careful economic policy, from crippling the Taliban's opium supplies to Afghan exploitation of their minerals, the Taliban can be starved and crippled.

To answer the second point: bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table would be a fruitless endeavour. Bringing the tribes which back the Taliban to the negotiating table would be more beneficial. The Taliban organization itself, so long as it remains in Afghanistan, can not be trusted to negotiate in good faith. Such a policy would be like suggesting negotiating with Boko Haram or ISIS.

What is at stake in Afghanistan is not only American safety from Al-Qaeda, but its own reputation as the dominant superpower. While the US has been unable to end either the Iraq or Afghan wars, Vladimir Putin of Russia is on the cusp of a seismic victory in Syria, one which will leave the United States on the back foot internationally until it can replicate similar victories.

Issues of corruption, terrorism and democracy in the Islamic world continue to hold enormous challenges for the United States. Instead of talking about withdrawal from Afghanistan, conservative pundits would be better advised to find innovative ways to win the conflict that matters: the Afghan war where the perpetrators of 9-11 still threaten America.

After all, as President Donald Trump has said, "No dream is too big. No challenge is too great. Nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach." It is time conservatives followed his lead and sought an enduring outcome for the United States in Afghanistan.

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