Taliban peace and the future of the Afghan war

It is no secret that President Donald Trump is frustrated with the lack of progress in Afghanistan. However, the recent change to policy in the US engaging directly in dialogue with the Taliban is likely to have an adverse effect on winding down the Afghan war.

On the one hand, it legitimizes the one regime post-9-11 the United States has waged war on that does not deserve legitimacy. Neither Saddam's regime in Iraq, nor Qaddafi's regime in Libya nor Assad's regime in Syria harboured terrorists that planned and executed 9-11. For that matter, even ISIS didn't harbour Al-Qaeda and the two organizations remain mortal enemies. To give legitimacy to the Taliban undermines the war on terror completely and puts the United States on the same side as the terrorists which took down the world trade centre.

On the other hand, the Taliban's conditions in peace negotiations would leave the US the clear loser and the Taliban the clear winner. The Taliban want a withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and do not view the Afghan government with any type of legitimacy. They also see that the US is desperate for peace in Afghanistan.

But in that the Taliban misjudge this Administration. For them to believe that the Trump Administration will leave Afghanistan after the peace talks fail - and the peace talks will fail - is to clearly misjudge this American President. Though President Trump is not a fervent believer in the Afghan War, the advantages of escalating the Afghan war outweigh the advantages of a pullout.

First, the Afghan war gives a clear face to the proxy war between China and the United States. The Taliban are supported by Pakistan, and Pakistan is largely supported by China. Not only is the Afghan government US-backed, but it is also backed by India. Together, India and the US are China's main rival in Afghanistan and Asia as a whole.

Second, fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan allows President Trump to keep his commitment to protect the American people from terrorism. The Taliban are still linked to Al-Qaeda at the highest levels, and Al-Qaeda's focus on the "far enemy" over the "near enemy" mean that Al-Qaeda remains a more potent threat to the United States than ISIS. With the Trump Administration tacitly supporting a stronger Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Libya and Syria, it is important for the Administration to show their commitment to defeating terrorism elsewhere - namely in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Third, President Trump is eyeing a withdrawal from Syria before a withdrawal from Afghanistan. Clearly, Syria belongs to the long list of post 9-11 wars that increased the threat of terrorism in the region rather than decreased it. With Russia filling the void left by the US' lack of appetite for further regime change, the US is better positioned to withdraw from Syria than other countries like Afghanistan.

Fourth, Afghanistan provides a rare opportunity for the United States to work with Russia. With relations between Pakistan and America worsening by the day, it is only a matter of time before Pakistan bar entry for the US military into Afghanistan permanently. Should Pakistan do that, the United States will be faced with several options: first option would be a military pullout; second option would be to invade a neighbouring country like Iran or Pakistan to allow US troops into Afghanistan; third option would be to work with Russia.

Under this Administration, an invasion of Pakistan or Iran would be highly unlikely. While a subsequent military pullout from Afghanistan is possible, it is more likely that the Trump Administration will try and work with Russia on Afghanistan. The reason why this is possible is India. Even as the US grows closer to India, India still enjoys strong bilateral ties with Russia and can act as the mediator between the two nations.

It is quite likely that President Trump sees that within Afghanistan is the opportunity for Russia to get weaned off China. Should Russia be promised the lion's share of trade with Afghanistan that both India and the US enjoy, this would incentivise Russia to permit the US to move through Russia and the states of Central Asia into Afghanistan, even as Pakistani-Russian relations improve.

This would require some sanctions to be removed from Russia and President Trump would, of course, be faced by a hostile and anti-Russian US Congress. Similar to President Obama's negotiations with Iran, the US Congress is unlikely to be supportive of any attempts by President Trump to work with Russia, no matter the circumstances.

However, should Congress block an attempted thaw in US-Russian relations in the absence of the Pakistani route into Afghanistan, President Trump would withdraw militarily from Afghanistan. This would put Congress in a diabolical position and move the US public to increasingly favour rapprochement with Russia to defeat terrorism globally.

In any case, the future of the war in Afghanistan is likely to be decided in the next 4 years. Either the conflict will escalate with victory more clearly defined, or the hard efforts of the past three Administrations will be laid waste by Congress, and China will reap the benefits of a terrorist base in Afghanistan.

Withdrawal from Afghanistan wastes the only US war waged in the past 17 years that was the right one. It would leave the United States' status as a nation seeking justice and liberty as questionable. And rightly so.