To win more speedily in Afghanistan, the United States must repair relations with Russia, withdraw from Pakistan and take the northern route into the country.
If there was ever a chance for President Trump to restore relations with Russia, weaken China and defeat radical Islamism, Afghanistan is that opportunity.
It has been a year since the Trump Administration unveiled the South Asia strategy, which was aimed at ending the Afghan war by having a conditions-based approach rather than a time-based approach, applying more international pressure on Pakistan, increasing trilateral ties between the US, India and Afghanistan, and, most importantly, achieving an outcome worthy of the sacrifices of the United States military in South and Central Asia.
Unlike Iraq, Syria or Libya, the involvement of the United States in Afghanistan has been with support from the majority of the Afghan people and has been against a regime linked to the terrorists who perpetrated 9-11 - the Taliban. As Barrack Obama rightly said, if the Iraq War was the "bad war," Afghanistan was the "good war."
For the Trump Administration to pull out of Afghanistan at this critical moment would send a message to America's adversities that it has no interest in prolonged and expensive conflicts, leading America's adversities to make calculated risks against the United States' interest, like the Russian annexation of Crimea. In short, US withdrawal from Afghanistan would make war with Iran or North Korea more likely rather than less likely.
The current South Asia strategy has shown positive results in 12 months. For the first time since 2001, two cease-fires were announced during Eid Al-Fitr between the Taliban and the Ghani government, an unprecedented moment in the last 40 years of conflict. This can be directly related to US pressure on Pakistan and increased ties with India, perhaps the most successful changes in the US strategy.
While maintaining pressure on Pakistan is achieving positive results in the short-term, in the long-term Pakistan is not a strategic partner that shares the same interests as those of the United States. Pakistan has no geopolitical interest in seeing a pro-US democracy in Afghanistan, nor in dismantling the Haqqani Network or the Taliban.
Pakistan also has covert support from China in continuing its destabilizing policy of funding terrorism in India-related spheres of influence, which includes Afghanistan. With the US increasingly looking to China as their largest adversity, Pakistan should be seen as an Islamist-Chinese vessel that shares no strategic interest with the United States - and that in spite of election of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Conversely, Russia has a geo-strategic interest in Afghanistan as paramount to that of the United States. Unlike China, Russia sees Afghanistan as a springboard for terrorism towards its vulnerable southern border. For this reason Russia is deepening relations with Pakistan and the Taliban, not out of interest but out of necessity, as few in Russia really believe the United States will remain in Afghanistan much longer.
Yet for all the Media talk of withdrawal, under President Trump the United States is more invested in Afghanistan than ever. Just recently in a Military Times article titled "US rejects invitation to join Russia talks on Afghanistan," the journalist notes additionally that Afghanistan will be integrated into the US' Indo-Pacific strategy. This can only mean one thing: further deterioration of relations between Pakistan and the United States in exchange for closer cooperation with India in Afghanistan and the wider region.
However, should US-Pakistani relations deteriorate further, the Pakistanis will block the US from entering Afghanistan using their sea-land routes, as Afghanistan remains land-locked. This will put the Trump Administration in a very difficult position: to withdraw from Afghanistan would be to cede the region to China; to wage war with Pakistan or Iran for a land route into Afghanistan would be deeply unpopular with the American public.
But a deal with Russia could provide the ultimate solution to this conundrum.
Many of President Trump's supporters see that a deal with Russia is not only preferable, but essential for curbing Chinese influence worldwide. Right now, Russian-Chinese ties are exceptionally strong, comparable to ties between the United States and Britain at the ending of the Second World War. To make inroads on this incredibly strong alliance must begin with converging interests.
This has played out to a certain extent in Syria, but the US' unwillingness to engage in any peace process except through Geneva has had a counter-productive impact on US-Russian relations. But shared goals of eliminating terrorism, restoring stability to Syria and securing Israel's interests are proof that, indeed, Russia and the United States agree on enough that a future deal in Afghanistan is possible.
For the US, components of such a deal would include ceding Pakistan to Russia, the relaxing of certain US sanctions and promising Russia and the nations to Afghanistan's north a more significant portion of Afghan economic projects - and that over Pakistan, China and Iran. In exchange, Russia would provide for the US a land route into Afghanistan, more support for the Afghan government and more assistance to America's counter-terrorism strategy.
Such a deal may even be in the process right now, but through India rather than direct Russian-US contacts. India is a central partner in the US' Indo-Pacific strategy, has strong ties to both Russia and the United States, and has a vested interest in weaning the US off Pakistan in exchange for more friendly ties with the Kremlin.
For Afghanistan's sake, a US-Russian-Indian deal is best case scenario. Worst case scenario is a repeat of the 1980's debacle, with a superpower defeated by Pakistan and terrorism ready to strike the world again.
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